According to Wikipedia the law of total probability "expresses the total probability of an outcome which can be realized via several distinct events". We can also think of this as the marginal probability: irrespsective of what road we took to get to this outcome, what is the total likelihood of the outcome occurring? Example 1... Continue Reading →

# Bayes theorem – a worked example

So I found this quite a mind-bender, although I believe this is part and parcel of the typical high-school maths syllabus now! Here is my stab at understanding the theorem and how it relates to a real-life example... Problem wording: Jane witnessed a robbery in which a car was involved. It is known that 1... Continue Reading →