Poisson vs Exponential distributions

These distributions are related yet different – here’s a comparison that hopefully clears up any confusions!

Things to know:

  • e is Euler’s number – you’ll find e on your calculator or you can use numpy.exp() in Python
  • The ‘parameter’ is conventionally written as λ and is pronounced lambda

Poisson

Exponential

Number of events that occur in an interval of timeTime taken between 2 events occurring
For example… the number of Metrorail trains that arrive at the platform in an hourFor example… the time between one Metrorail train arriving and the next
6 trains10 minutes between trains
The random variable is discrete – this is a countable number of things that happenThe random variable is continuous – typically time, but may represent other factors like distance
λ represents the number of events (per unit of time)λ represents time between individual events
Graphically, a Poisson distribution looks like this:

poisson

Graphically, an Exponential distribution looks like this:

Picture1

Calculate probability as follows:

P(X=x) = eλλx / x!

Calculate probability as follows:

P(x>n) = e-λ(n)


P(x<n) = 1 – e-λ(n)


P(n<x<m) = P(x<m) – P(x<n)

On average 6 trains arrive at the platform per hour…

What is the probability that fewer than 2 trains arrive in the next 20 minutes?What is the probability that a train arrives every 8 minutes or less?
λ = 2 per 20 minutesλ = 0.1 per minute (6/60)
P(X<2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)

= e220 / 0!  +  e21/ 1!

= 0.41

P(x<8) = 1 – e0.1(8)

= 0.45

 

Images courtesy of Wikimedia

2 amazingly simple video tutorials are available on YouTube if you need a quick walk-through: